Introduction

During China’s largest military parade, held on the 3rd of September 2025 in Beijing, which marked the 80th anniversary of the end of the Second World War, there were dozens of world leaders at the event, most of them from non-Western countries. It was Chinese President Xi Jinping’s arrival with Vladimir Putin of Russia and Kim Jong-un, the leader of North Korea, which got the most coverage. This article argues that with an unstable global order, the ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia, tensions between North Korea and South Korea, and heightened tensions between China and Taiwan; the convention of these three leaders of nuclear powers could serve as a war deterrence in areas they may consider as falling into their spheres of influence.

With the rising involvement of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and Western countries in the Russia-Ukraine war, one can argue that the military parade in China was also beneficial for Russia. China and Russia share strategic goals against the dominance of the United States (US) and are involved in technology transfers, especially in missile defence, with China increasingly seen in the West to be supporting Russia’s war effort through the export of dual-use technology and the continued purchase of Russian energy using local currencies. The renewal of ties between Xi and Putin thus conveyed solidarity. The article argues that the relationship between China, Russia, and North Korea will play a key role in a fragmented geopolitical order and may act as a deterrence against war in their respective regions.

North Korea and Russia’s mutual defence pact

At the military parade, Kim Jong-un received an appreciation message from President Putin for the bravery and heroic stance that was taken by the North Korean forces against Ukrainian soldiers. This has shown that North Korea and Russia are very committed to strengthening ties, and they are willing to provide military support when it is necessary. Under Vladimir Putin’s leadership, Russia has significantly improved its relationship with North Korea. Kim Jong Un promised Russian President Vladimir Putin in a letter that he will back Putin’s policies unconditionally and permanently, North Korean state media KCNA stated in early January 2026. In the letter, he stated that:

“I will unconditionally respect and unconditionally support all your policies and decisions and I have a willingness to be always with you for the sake of you and your Russia,”

In 2024, both nations established a new strategic partnership agreement featuring a mutual defence clause, which North Korea has labelled as an alliance. The Chinese military parade showcased a unity among some of the leaders present, such as the Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Cane, and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, that seeks to challenge the US and the Western countries’ hegemony in the global system. This marked the first occasion in 66 years that a leader from North Korea participated in a military parade in China. The previous North Korean leader who participated in a military parade in China was the country’s founder, Kim Jong Un’s late grandfather, Kim Il Sung, in 1959. Leaders from countries such as Russia, ever since the invasion of Ukraine, have been under scrutiny from Western countries who have sought to isolate the country. French President Emmanuel Macron announced that 26 of Ukraine’s partners have officially pledged to deploy soldiers “by land, sea, or air” to ensure security once hostilities cease. According to the president of the European Union (EU), Ursula Gertrud von der Leyen,

“European countries are drawing up ‘precise plans’ for international military deployments in Ukraine as part of security guarantees that could be implemented if a peace agreement is struck to end the war sparked by Russia’s ongoing invasion.”

Following the above statements, President Putin has also made remarks against Ukraine joining NATO in line with his position of not wanting NATO military bases in Russia’s backyard. With EU leaders and analysts predicting a possible conflict by 2030, Presidents Xi, Putin and Kim Jong-un may have seen the need to project unity during the parade. The war deterrent thus becomes effective; especially with China, Russia, and North Korea all possessing nuclear arsenals that have become a cornerstone of deterrence.

China’s signal deterrence against Taiwan and foreign interference

The military parade and strengthening relations between the three countries could also play a vital role in China’s claim of Taiwan and deter US aggression in Southeast Asia, especially in the South China Sea. China has always claimed Taiwan as part of the People’s Republic of China (PRC). Taiwan continues to be one of the major issues that has the potential to spark conflict between the US and China. China’s display of firepower sends a clear and unambiguous message to neighbouring nations like Japan, the Philippines, and Vietnam, as well as Taiwan, where China has just begun conducting military exercises. Some of these countries are allies of the US, which regards China as a threat to its hegemony.

The US is attempting to contain China’s influence in Southeast Asia by associating itself with the “First Island Chain”. The first island chain generally denotes the series of islands and countries that include Japan, Taiwan, and the Philippines, which are allies or partners of the US. These islands and nations provide the primary line of defence against China within the US strategic framework in the Asia-Pacific, with South Korea, while not being an island nation, also playing a significant role.

In 2024, the US sought to reopen one of its former military bases in the Philippines, which was disbanded in the 1990s in Subic Bay. After the closure, the military base became an economic hub for the Philippine government. Under the Enhanced Defence Cooperation Agreement (EDCA), the US is increasing its presence by building equipment storage facilities and modernising Philippines naval facilities, especially in Subic Bay and Palawan. These initiatives include the building of a new Navy storage facility close to Subic, the staging of US Marine Corps equipment in Subic Bay, and the establishment of a barracks and boat maintenance facility in Palawan to assist operations in the South China Sea.  These outposts, which are situated in Cagayan, Isabela, and Palawan, as well as renovated locations like Subic Bay, are intended to bolster deterrence against China in the vicinity of Taiwan and the South China Sea.

The Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces of the Philippines, Romeo Brawner, instructed personnel stationed in Northern Luzon to prepare for the potential consequences of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan in April 2025. As a deterrent, US Secretary of Defence Pete Hegseth also announced that Marine Corps anti-ship missile launchers would be sent to the area that same month. The Philippines had several joint military exercises with the US troops. The Philippines’ defensive capabilities are intended to be strengthened through Maritime Cooperative Activities (MCAs) with the US and India, as well as Exercise Alon 25 with Australia.

The US expansion in Southeast Asia has been seen by China as provocative in the region. With Russia’s attack on Ukraine in 2022, many Western countries and analysts became concerned about the possibility of China’s invasion of Taiwan, and military drills between the US and the First Island Chain became regular, threatening Chinese hegemony in Southeast Asia and the Pacific Ocean.

During World War II, the Japanese attacked Pearl Harbour, as they felt threatened by the US presence on the Hawaiian island. Even though the Pearl Harbour naval base was stationed long before World War II, Japan saw the need for the attack because Japan viewed the US Pacific Fleet as a major obstacle to its expansion and hoped a swift, devastating attack on Pearl Harbour would neutralise the US naval power, allowing Japan time to conquer and fortify its new empire in Southeast Asia. The US is continuously using the same strategy they used against Japan to contain China in Southeast Asia by installing the military bases around First Island Chain nations.

North Korea’s security dynamics in East Asia

After the Chinese military parade, North Korea also held its 80-year anniversary marking the ruling of the Worker’s Party, which gave Kim Jong Un the opportunity to show off North Korea’s new hypersonic weapon. Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev (2008 – 2012), currently serving as Russia’s deputy chairman of the country’s National Security Council, and Chinese Premier Li Qiang were among the foreign dignitaries at the Pyongyang parade. This marks a significant change in the geopolitical landscape, with the respective countries making strides and creating resistant moves at the international level against leading Western countries.

North Korea has continuously received the same US threat as China and Russia due to its nuclear program. Countries such as South Korea and Japan have been at the forefront, bidding for US hegemony in East Asia. In July 2022, the US, Japan and the biggest adversary of North Korea in the region, South Korea, held military drills in the region. North Korea perceives U.S.-led military drills in the region, notably ones with rival South Korea, as an invasion rehearsal, though Washington and Seoul have repeatedly stated they have no ambitions of attacking the North. The US has always viewed North Korea as a security threat based on its growing nuclear weapons program, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) capable of striking the US mainland.

Conclusion

Despite having a history of tensions, the strategic relationship between China, Russia, and North Korea has grown more powerful, and it has been marked by the recent military parades and military support in the Ukraine war. Since 2006, the United Nations (UN) has imposed additional sanctions on North Korea for its ballistic missile and nuclear programs, which have been reinforced each time. The United Nations (UN) Security Council has been divided on how to deal with North Korea. Russia and China argue that more sanctions will not help, while Washington and its Asian allies accuse Beijing and Moscow of emboldening North Korea by protecting it from further penalties. The three nuclear powers have shown increasing solidarity through diplomatic ties, with recent military parades solidifying their relationship against NATO and the US, thus challenging US hegemony in Europe, Southeast Asia and East Asia.