The worst-case scenario is that we suffer a sudden stop, meaning inflows abruptly cease.One helpful definition of a sudden stop offered in the literature specifies a year-on-year fall in the financial account greater than two standard deviations from the mean. Other scholars have expanded this to a fall greater than one standard deviation, with the added requirement that the decline in inflows must exceed 5% of GDP, to exclude cases where low volatility produces small standard deviations. By either definition, this has never happenedin democratic South Africa.

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